China's Proposed Import Bans on Thermal Coal: Not the Real Problem Facing Australia

The Chinese government has announced that it is going to limit certain coal imports from next year. The Sydney Morning Herald reports:

The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015 in a bid to improve air quality, especially in cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.

According to one analyst: ''[Australian coal exports are] typically around 5500 kilocalories and 24-25 per cent ash. So we've got big problems.''

However, others are less concerned by the changes arguing that the impact on other coal exporters will be even greater.

The restrictions applied vary in stringency depending on geography ... The least stringent [restrictions] apply across the entire country and would not affect a single major Australian thermal coal exporter, all of whom would comfortably comply. However it is the most stringent which apply to the major economic zones of Beijing, Hubei, Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta which are of the greatest relevance. These areas are on or close to the coast and therefore are the most prospective for Australian seaborne exported coal ... only 10% of Australian coal exports go to China, and the highly restricted region represents 42% of Chinese thermal coal imports further softening the blow. This means the amount of production likely to be affected is low.

What is clear is that we need some context to assess the impact of China's proposed restrictions and any potential damage to the Australian economy.

According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade's Composition of Trade, in 2013, China was Australia’s largest export market, accounting for 31.9 per cent ($101.6 billion) of total exports of goods and services (an increase of 28.2 per cent on 2012); Japan was Australia’s second largest export market ($49.5 billion); the Republic of Korea was third largest market ($21.3 billion).

Major goods and services export markets

Coal is Australia's second biggest export, behind iron ore and in front of education related travel services.

According to another DFAT publication, from 2001 to 2011, "the value of coal exports rose from $12.5 billion in 2001 to $46.8 billion in 2011, a rise of almost 300 per cent."

Traditionally our biggest market for coal has been Japan, with China a much less significant market until recently. Between 2001 and 2011 Coal exports increased their share of exports to China but were still dwarfed by iron ore exports.

Since 2011, Chinese coal exports have more than doubled from $4.5 billion to $9.1 billion in 2013.

Australian Coal Exports 2013 

The point to note here is that China has traditionally mined a lot of coal itself, but in recent years Chinese production has been in decline with significant producers struggling.  An integral component of the restrictions, therefore, will be to encourage more Chinese coal production.

The most important point to note, however, is that there are two major forms of coal exports – thermal and metallurgical. Thermal coal is used mainly for electricity generation, whilst metallurgical coal is used in steel manufacture.

Metallurgical coal exports in 2012-13 were $22.4 billion and thermal coal exports were $16.2 billion. It is thermal coal exports that could be affected by China's bans.

Principal markets for resources and energy exports

in 2012–13 dollars

Source: BREE

The above graphs clearly show the rise in both metallurgical and thermal coal exports to China since the early 2000s, but China remains a significantly less important market than Japan for both.

A problem with the focus on the potential damage to Australian thermal coal exports from the Chinese bans is that it may miss the real problem for Australian exports over coming years. The coal sector in Australia has been in trouble for quite some time, with coal miners slashing their work forces in recent times.

One of the major vulnerabilities for Australia moving forward is the increase in the share of unprocessed raw materials exports, which have substantially increased their share of total exports since 2008 and even more so since the late 1990s.

The real danger for Australian coal exports would be similar restrictions on exports of thermal coal to Japan and South Korea. Let's face it if you want to do something about climate change and levels of pollution then restricting the growth of coal burning will be essential.

Despite the moves by the Chinese authorities, coal remains the second most important source of energy. Renewables have been growing rapidly in recent years, but their share is still depressingly low.

While coal consumption is declining in Europe and North America it is increasing markedly in the Asia-Pacific.

Source: Vox

Thermal coal burning is going to continue for quite some time yet and the Chinese restrictions will have considerably less impact than the growth slowdown in China and the decline in house building and infrastructure development.

China must lessen its investment share of GDP to rebalance its economy. It could do this in an orderly way over the next few years or it could resist the need to rebalance and face an eventual catastrophic rebalancing later in the decade. In other words, rebalancing away from investment towards consumption will occur, it just depends on when and how. Australia will be negatively affected either way.

What this means is that the decline in iron ore prices and export volumes will be way more important than a ban on thermal coal exports. Those concerned about this issue should be more worried by the general decline in commodity prices.

But it's not all gloom and doom for thermal coal. Given the Abbott government's hostility to developing solutions to climate change and to the advancement of the renewable energy sector, it's possible that coal miners may be able to expand their 75 per cent share of electricity production in Australia.