Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Australia's Economic Vulnerabilities

Interesting comments from Australian OECD economist Adrian Blundell-Wignall.

He argues that the export-led model of many developing economies is not sustainable, especially over time as developing economies account for a greater share of global GDP (see here for analysis).

Not all countries can be exporters at any point in time exports must match imports so unless we start trading with another planet, not every country can have a trade surplus.

He then goes on to skewer the banks:
"If you go back to 1980 the earnings of the financial sector of the S&P 500 companies was less than 10 per cent."
He says the proportion of Wall Street earnings by finance stocks is now more than 30 per cent, having risen above its share when the GFC hit.
"The financial sector is supposed to be the sector that intermediates between real savers and real investors. That's what greases the wheels of capitalism," he said.
"Where do we get off thinking that the financial sector can just rip one third of the earnings for themselves?
"People want to understand why investment is a problem ... there's no inflation and the recovery is very problematic everywhere.
"Monetary policy can only do so much and you need an investment cycle to follow. And the investment cycle really isn't following."
He also warns of the danger of a slowing China for Australia and the potential for problems if the US dollar rises and has an impact on commodity prices.

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